Muhammad Hafeez works as a dockworker at Port Qasim in Karachi, but his mind is elsewhere these days — hundreds of miles away, in fact. He constantly scrolls through Facebook updates from local pages and calls relatives back home to stay informed about developments in his native village in the Mamond area of Bajaur, a former tribal district bordering Afghanistan.
Hafeez’s village is one of several located along the Afghan frontier that now lie under a tense cloud of uncertainty.
Late last month, authorities imposed a curfew in parts of Bajaur after launching a fresh military campaign, codenamed Operation Sarbakaf, targeted at militants affiliated with the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as well as the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISKP), the local affiliate of the transnational Islamic State group, regrouping in the area.
The operation comes amid a surge in militant violence in recent months, including the targeted killings of several key political figures, such as the Awami National Party leader Maulana Khan Zeb, former senator Hidayatullah Khan, as well as several government officials in ambushes and improvised explosive device (IED) attacks.
Just last week, the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) marked the second anniversary of the devastating suicide bombing at its political rally in 2023, which killed over 55 party workers. The ISKP had claimed responsibility for that attack.
Mediation efforts
In an attempt to defuse the escalating tensions, a jirga, comprising local elders and political representatives, has initiated mediation efforts between the TTP and the state. Their primary aim is to prevent a repeat of mass civilian displacement, a traumatic experience that remains deeply etched in the collective memory of the region’s inhabitants.
“We don’t want to see our families, especially our women and children, once again forced onto the roads with their belongings,” Hafeez told me over the phone, his voice heavy with fatigue and anxiety. Still, given the volatility of the situation, he said he had advised his family to relocate as a precaution. “Anything can happen at any time.”
The jirga, led by Sahibzada Haroon Rasheed, a former MNA and senior Jamaat-i-Islami leader, has reportedly presented two options to the jirga of TTP leaders, headed by Ilyas Mahajir, a local commander, in an attempt to avoid conflict. While details of these options remain confidential, sources in Bajaur indicate that the proposal urges the militants to either return to Afghanistan or retreat to the mountains if they intend to confront security forces.
So far, the outcome of the negotiations remains uncertain, with several key issues yet unresolved. “The suspension of mobile networks is causing significant delays,” said Bilal Yasir, a journalist based in Bajaur. “Neither jirga has the authority to make final decisions. The Bajaur jirga must consult the government on each point, while the TTP delegation has returned to establish contact with its leadership in Kunar and Kabul for further guidance.”
And Bajaur is not alone. Similar mediation efforts are under way in other former tribal districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, such as North Waziristan and Tirah valley in Khyber, where local jirgas are offering militants the same set of proposals. They aim to shield civilian populations from the kind of displacement and destruction witnessed during Operation Zarb-e-Azb in 2014.
These local initiatives are part of broader efforts to restore peace in the former tribal regions of KP, where militant activity has seen a troubling resurgence, particularly along the Afghan border.
Meanwhile, leaders of jirgas from various tribal districts recently met with KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur in Peshawar. They unanimously rejected the idea of military operations and mass displacement, calling such measures unacceptable. Instead, they proposed the creation of a broad-based, empowered jirga comprising representatives from both federal and provincial governments, tribal elders, and other key stakeholders. The jirga, they argued, should open direct dialogue with the Taliban administration in Kabul to establish long-term peace.
But it’s not like this hasn’t been attempted before. In 2022, several rounds of talks, mediated by the Afghan Taliban, took place between Pakistani officials and TTP leaders based in eastern Afghanistan. A ceasefire was announced in June, but negotiations collapsed by November over irreconcilable differences, including the TTP’s refusal to disarm or accept Pakistan’s Constitution.
Today, CM Gandapur also faces pressure from within his own party. The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), whose jailed leader Imran Khan has warned Gandapur against allowing any military operation in KP, including its former tribal areas, has drawn a hard line. The political messaging is clear: no more war on home soil.
While the federal government and military have not issued official statements on the ongoing peace talks between tribal jirgas and militants, the government has recently delivered a stern warning to the provincial authorities in KP and Balochistan, urging them to fulfill their responsibilities in combating terrorism, adding that continued “irresponsible conduct” would no longer be tolerated.
“Security forces are fulfilling their responsibilities, but I want to tell the provincial governments of KP and Balochistan, where terrorism is on the rise, to fulfill their political responsibility,” said Talal Chaudhry, Minister of State for Interior, on Monday at a Youm-e-Shuhada ceremony at the Islamabad Police Headquarters.
With regards to the jirgas, however, officials from relevant federal ministries, including Interior and Defence, have maintained silence so far.
Meanwhile, as speculation about a potential offensive grows, a large number of residents from the Loi Mamond area in Bajaur have begun fleeing their homes. Around 1,250 families have registered with local authorities, while a similar number are believed to have moved elsewhere without formal documentation, according to Yasir, the journalist in Bajaur.
Rebirth of the insurgency
In recent years, Pakistan has witnessed a surge in terrorism, ranging from suicide bombings and targeted assassinations to complex assaults on military bases and mosques. The escalating insurgency has exposed the state’s weakening grip over its restive provinces of KP and Balochistan, as both terrorists and separatist groups grow bolder.
The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025 now ranks Pakistan as the world’s second most terrorism-affected country, after Burkina Faso — an unfamiliar name to many Pakistanis. According to the report, terrorism-related deaths surged by 45 per cent in 2024 to 1,081, while attacks more than doubled from 517 to 1,099.
This worsening security crisis stems from a complex concoction of domestic, regional, and global factors. Domestically, outlawed outfits such as the TTP and the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group and ethno-separatist outfits such as the Baloch Liberation Army have intensified their terror campaigns, exploiting the nation’s deepening economic instability and political turmoil following the ouster of former premier Imran Khan in 2022.
Regionally, the fall of Kabul in 2021 and the subsequent return of the Taliban to Afghanistan have emboldened terror outfits, including the TTP, while also fuelling violence from the ISKP.
With terror networks expanding and state authority eroding, Pakistan’s security challenges are reaching a breaking point. The question now is whether the government can reclaim control or will the insurgency further spiral out of hand, according to officials.
“The local population is caught in a complex dilemma,” said a Peshawar-based law enforcement official. “On the one hand, they want peace and are calling for the elimination of militant groups from the region. On the other hand, however, they are deeply concerned about the consequences of another military operation, which could lead to mass displacement and the destruction of homes.”
Talks, militants, and the state’s strategy
The general perception is that the Pakistani government often initiates peace negotiations with militant groups through local jirgas before launching full-scale military operations. Analysts argue this approach serves a dual purpose: to demonstrate that all peaceful options were exhausted and to build public support for military action.
This pattern has been observed in nearly all major counterinsurgency operations. In Swat, for example, the military launched a major offensive in 2009 against militants led by Maulana Fazlullah, following the collapse of a peace agreement between the then ANP-led KP government and Tehreek-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammadi (TNSM), headed by Maulana Sufi Muhammad.
Similar other agreements were also signed in 2008 and in later years with Maulvi Faqir Muhammad, a militant commander in Bajaur, and with Mangal Bagh-led Lashkar-i-Islam in Khyber, among others, but these did not remain in effect for long.
Similarly, Operation Zarb-e-Azb was announced in 2014, just a week after a deadly TTP attack on Karachi Airport. That military campaign came after the failure of peace talks between a government-formed committee and the TTP leadership.
Fakhar Kakakhel, a Peshawar-based journalist and author of Jang Nama, who has reported extensively on all major counterterrorism operations in the region, explained the state’s strategy. “The state often offers militants an opportunity for peace talks before launching operations,” said Kakakhel. “It is generally understood that the militants will not honour the agreements for long. Their eventual violations provide the state with a justification for military action, and also help garner support from the local population.”
He also pointed to an ideological distinction among militant factions that influences their willingness to abide by peace agreements. “Militant groups operating in the southern regions, particularly North Waziristan, and those affiliated with the Deobandi school of thought, have historically adhered to peace accords for extended periods, often through local arrangements facilitated mostly by local clerics or JUI-F leaders,” Kakakhel noted, citing the example of Hafiz Gul Bahadur.
Bahadur maintained a peace agreement with the government until 2014, when Operation Zarb-e-Azb also targeted his faction alongside the TTP and others. His faction has since re-emerged as one of the most formidable anti-state militant groups.
“In contrast,” Kakakhel continued, “militants operating in areas such as Bajaur, Mohmand, and Swat often follow a mix of Salafi and Panjpiri ideologies. These groups tend to be more hostile toward democracy and Islamist political parties, and they rarely honor agreements with the state.”
Déjà vu
Although jirga-led negotiations with the TTP continue in various districts, they culminated in a notable agreement in Khyber on Tuesday.
The TTP’s Rahbari Shura issued a document accepting key demands from the Bar Qambar Khel elders of the Afridi tribe, including refraining from militant activities unless provoked by security forces, and ending extortion, kidnapping, and torture of locals accused of harming TTP militants.
However, the absence of any mention of the TTP’s withdrawal from the area has raised concern about the effectiveness and long-term implications of the agreement. Critics argue that legitimising an armed group still hostile to the state may offer only temporary relief, not sustainable peace.
While some view the talks as a chance to avoid another military operation, fear and uncertainty continue to grip communities on the ground.
Analysts from KP warn that this deal in Khyber could set a precedent for similar arrangements in other volatile areas such as Bajaur, Mohmand, and North Waziristan, where law and order continue to deteriorate and public protests reflect growing frustration.
For communities long affected by militancy and displacement, the negotiations offer a fragile sense of hope. However, skepticism persists given the TTP’s record of violating past agreements and the government’s non-negotiable stance on constitutional matters.
Whether these talks succeed or falter, the people of the tribal belt remain suspended in an uneasy calm, caught between promises of peace and the shadow of war.
