• Preparations in place for more ‘controlled breaches’ as waters from Ravi-Chenab set to converge
• PDMA chief fears renewed flooding in central Punjab as Indian dams near max capacity;
says ‘Ravi flowing backwards’ instead of merging with Chenab
• 3.7m affected across province, death toll jumps to 46; another massive surge expected at Multan tomorrow
LAHORE: As the confluence of the swollen Ravi and Chenab rivers near Khanewal threatens the districts of Multan and Muzaffargarh, provincial authorities on Wednesday braced for an unprecedented disaster in light of a “dual threat”, which persisted despite several controlled breaches over the past week.
The water level at Muhammadwala and Sher Shah was recorded at 412 feet, only five feet below critical level. The authorities termed the next 12 hours critical, as the pressure at the breaching points continued to increase after the convergence of the Ravi and Chenab rivers near Khanewal.
In order to save urban centres along the eastern rivers, the Punjab government has been following a policy of controlled breaches to relieve pressure on barrages and main embankments to protect densely populated cities. A decision on whether to conduct a breach at Head Muhammadwala, Sher Shah Flood Bund, and Rangpur is expected within hours to save Multan and Muzaffargarh, with 17 points identified.
However, the situation in these two districts is compounded because of an enormous surge of approximately 550,000 cusecs that crossed the Marala and Khanki Headworks and was recorded passing through Qadirabad Headworks with an intensity of 530,000 cusecs. Officials projected that this powerful surge would reach Trimmu Headworks on Thursday and is expected to arrive in the Multan region by Friday.
“The next 12 hours are extremely critical,” stated a Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) official closely involved in crisis management. “We are facing a dual threat: the existing high water from the confluence of the rivers and a new, massive wave heading directly for us. All resources are being mobilised,” he said.
On the other hand, the railway traffic to Karachi and vice versa was suspended from Faisalabad after a bridge on a railway track on the Chenab River came under water in Abdul Hakim.
Flood warnings
In a press conference on Wednesday evening, PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia said that the flood crisis was set to intensify as all three major Indian dams were expected to reach their maximum capacity within the next 72 hours, exacerbating an already catastrophic situation in the Punjab river system. Addressing a press conference, DG Kathia revealed that his office had received three separate flood warnings in the past 24 hours alone.
He confirmed that while the water level in the Chenab River was currently stable, previously affected districts along its course were likely to face renewed flooding.
The Sutlej River has been in a flood-like condition for the past two months, while the Ravi River was experiencing rising levels at the Jassar monitoring point. “The next 72 hours are critical,” he stated.
“Thein Dam is already full and will continue to release water into the Ravi for the next two to three weeks. While the situation in Ravi will not be as severe as before, water levels will definitely increase.”
In an alarming development, the DG explained that instead of merging with the Chenab as normally expected, the Ravi’s waters are flowing backwards, preventing any decrease in its water levels. “Until water levels decrease at Ahmadpur Sial, we will not see any reduction at Sidhnai,” he clarified.
The presser came after Punjab CM Maryam Nawaz conducted a personal assessment of the critical Head Muhammadwala site. DG Kathia said they were facing a major challenge here because it had only four to five feet of capacity remaining before reaching critical levels.
“At Sher Shah Bridge in Multan, there’s significant water pressure with only a two-foot margin remaining,” he revealed. “Important decisions regarding a controlled breaching in Multan have already been made to prevent uncontrolled overflow.”
Speaking about the damage, the DG said that more than 3,900 villages and a population exceeding 3.7 million had been affected across Punjab. The death toll has risen to 46 people, while over 1.4m residents and 1m animals had been relocated to safer locations.
The relief effort has expanded to include 409 flood camps where all essential facilities are being provided to approximately 25,000 displaced persons currently taking shelter.
In the Khanewal and Toba Tek Singh districts, the flooding has already affected 136 and 75 villages, respectively, with numbers expected to rise in light of renewed surges.
Punjab CM’s visit
Earlier, Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz visited flood relief camps in Multan and directed the district administrations to ascertain the scale of damage caused by the floods.
She directed the deputy commissioners to conduct surveys in the flood-affected areas and also provide clean drinking water. She also ordered fumigation and dry germicidal sprays in the flood relief camps and tent cities in the flood-affected areas.
River flows
As of 11pm on Wednesday night, the Marala Headworks on Chenab reported a flow of 444754 cusecs, which was falling, while both Khanki (steady) and Qadirabad Headworks (rising) were holding steady with extremely high flows of 558,683 and 557,440 cusecs, respectively.
A point of vigilance was the Chiniot bridge, where a rising trend was noted with 291,558 cusecs, and Head Muhammadwala, which was also rising at 413.25 feet against a danger level of 417.50 feet. Rivaz Bridge was steady at 519.90 ft (max level 526 ft) and Trimmu Headworks was steady at 265,837 cusecs.
For the Ravi River, the upstream point at Jassar was falling with 82,140 cusecs, indicating a receding trend.
All subsequent points had stabilised, including Ravi Syphon (79,800 cusecs and rising), Shahdara (78,340 cusecs and rising), Balloki Headworks (114,130 cusecs), and Sidhnai Headworks (152,480 Cusecs and falling), reporting steady conditions.
The Sutlej River system was completely stable across all monitoring stations. Key points included G.S. Wala (319,295 cusecs and steady), Sulemanki Headworks (132,492 cusecs and steady), Islam Headworks (95727 cusecs and steady), Panjnad Headworks (159,662 cusecs and steady), and Malsi Syphon (86,085 cusecs).
Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025
