• Positive signals, top-level engagement bode well for Islamabad, which seeks to be counted among ‘Top 3 powers’ in South Asia
• Pakistan-India largely ‘de-hyphenated’, but analysts warn against putting too much faith in transactional relationship based on minerals, crypto cooperation
OF LATE, it seems that Islamabad and Washington are in lockstep. The positive signals, which began emanating soon after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, seem to be turning into full-blown bonhomie.
From acknowledging Pakistan’s counterterror cooperation in the arrest of an IS-Khorasan operative to claiming credit for stopping a nuclear war in South Asia, the country has perhaps featured more in this US president’s day-to-day media interactions than any past ‘commander-in-chief’.
After securing what seems to be a major discount in tariff negotiations, attracting US investor interest in its oil and mineral reserves and signalling that its currency market is receptive to digital assets and cryptocurrencies, Pakistan seems to be in the driving seat as far as South Asia is concerned.
While this may seem like a turning of the tide to the casual observer, the fact of the matter is that Pakistan-US relations have gone through several crests and troughs in their several decade-long history.
But while the nature of the relationship has been cyclical, it is no coincidence that the current regime has been able to find a soft corner with the Trump administration. This, seasoned observers would argue, is a well-choreographed change that has been in the works for some time now.
According to Shuja Nawaz, founding director of the South Asia Centre at the Atlantic Council, the spike is not so sudden at all.
“It has been building via the military-to-military relationship on counterterrorism and likely covert aid, as well as provision of access to US aircraft and drones to monitor activities in the region,” he said.
Michael Kugelman, a former director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, also sees it as the continued results of “Islamabad’s successful attempts to get the attention of a relentlessly transactional administration”.
However, even he warns against viewing this “renaissance in ties” as something that has “long-term potential”, as policies tend to change from administration to administration, and sometimes, even midstream.
The latest manifestation of the newfound warmth can be seen in an upcoming parliamentary visit: the largest-ever Senate delegation from Pakistan is set to visit the US later this month.
The delegation, led by Deputy Senate Chairman Syedaal Khan Nasar, is scheduled to visit from Aug 12 to 20. It will include chairpersons of major Senate standing committees on Finance, Health, Interior, Cabinet Secretariat, Human Rights and Maritime Affairs.
Background discussions with diplomats in the US capital indicated that efforts were also underway to arrange a reciprocal visit by US lawmakers to Pakistan, aiming to deepen legislative-level ties and sustain the momentum generated in recent months.
During their US tour, Pakistani senators will visit Washington, Chicago, New Jersey, and New York, meeting with members of Congress, senior officials, business leaders, and diaspora representatives. The visit will culminate in the US-Pakistan Strategic Forum on Capitol Hill, scheduled for Aug 20 at the Rayburn House Office Building.
In any case, the US president is also bound to run into PM Shehbaz Sharif in New York, when the latter attends the 80th UN General Assembly session in September.
De-hyphenating India-Pakistan
So what does this mean? Islamabad sees this warming of ties as an opportunity to elevate the country’s regional standing.
For their part, Pakistani officials and analysts hope that after China and India, Pakistan will now be accorded a new status as the ‘number three power’ in South Asia — one that reflects its strategic relevance and potential.
They also expect political and economic support from Washington to help secure this position, and hope that any new regional role will be acceptable to both the United States and China.
In May, Pakistan’s army chief met President Trump at the White House. This was followed by a series of cabinet-level engagements, culminating in a breakthrough tariff agreement that set a uniform duty of 19 per cent on Pakistani exports to the US.
The opportunity offered by India’s obstinacy — especially in the wake of the May flare-up with Pakistan and the eventual US-brokered de-escalation — has been fully capitalised on.
It is no secret that Donald Trump likes to blow his own horn, having claimed credit for stopping nuclear war in the Subcontinent umpteen times. But while Islamabad has welcomed his diplomatic posture, New Delhi has been reluctant to do so.
This is perhaps one of the reasons why, in recent days, the US president has taken a decidedly more hostile approach towards an otherwise leading trade partner, calling India out for trading with Russia and Iran while not dropping its tariffs.
According to Christopher Clary, a Political Science professor associated with University at Albany, “India sometimes refuses to make positive-sum compromises out of principle & Pakistan has often compromised — or at least pretended to compromise — to ensure positive ties with DC”.
Mr Kugelman also agrees that the US-India relationship “is going through some travails”.
“Pakistan getting a trade deal with the US before India makes it harder for Washington and New Delhi to regain equilibrium,” he notes.
Mr Nawaz also agrees, noting that India’s massive trade surplus with the US could become a liability under Trump.
According to him, Pakistan should be grateful that the US has largely de-hyphenated India-Pakistan relations in policy implementation. But both nations will now face their own set of challenges as Washington redefines its economic and strategic alignments.
Transactional relationship
The transactional nature of the new Pakistan-US relationship is also apparent. At a recent international minerals conference in Islamabad, the US sent three separate delegations — from the White House, the State Department, and the Department of Commerce — underscoring the strategic importance Washington now attaches to Pakistan’s untapped natural resources.
According to Mr Kugelman, “Pakistan has managed to present itself as a well-positioned partner to deliver on the issues that interest the administration the most—crypto, critical minerals, and cooperation to track down terrorists that threaten the US.”
But, as he points out, Pakistan’s critical minerals are mostly found in highly insecure areas. “This administration could well lose interest and move on. It’s nothing if not fickle.”
Mr Nawaz, meanwhile, says that Pakistan “will have to be creative about how it brings its $3 billion surplus to zero”, perhaps by buying US technology and services or offering access to rare earth minerals in Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan. “The question is how it will finance those investments without upsetting China or Iran,” he notes.
Published in Dawn, August 4th, 2025
