THE government has clearly stated that inclusive growth is its foremost priority. This is reassuring, but will require reforms in the economic and development agendas of both the government and its international partners. Losing no time, we must prioritise people’s needs, particularly for the poorest households. Inclusive, and not exclusive, growth means lifting millions out of poverty and giving the children from such households their fundamental rights — primary education, basic nutrition and the right to survive their fifth birthday.
This is a call to put people’s development front and centre, and to deal with the shameful neglect of social and human development. Lessons can be drawn from the Social Action Programme in the late 1990s when multinationals and the Pakistan government designated resources to improve the lagging social indicators in health, education and population. Indeed, that exclusive focus and policy priorities, backed by additional financing didlead to improvements in crucial indicators. Fertility declined from 5.8 to 4.4 children per woman, female net enrolment rates rose from 38 to 48 per cent and the infant mortality rate declined from 100 to 80 deaths per 1,000 births in the 10-year period from 1995 to 2005.
Over the past two decades, we have seen growing stagnation in social development: in particular, fertility rates and female and male enrolment rates have remained alarmingly stagnant. This is not surprising since there have been no notable investments in social development due to the lack of funds. A new and aggressive social development agenda has to be launched to break the current trajectory that is leading us away from inclusive growth.
Some actions that can pay huge political and social dividends, with ripple effects, must be prioritised. The first step is for the state to focus on compulsory and free universal primary education. It will demonstrate the state’s determination to redress the decline in investment in Pakistan’s children. It is the state’s responsibility, above all, to provide free, and enforce compulsory, schooling for all children. Those who can afford it send their children to school, especially to the large number of private schools. The poorest households are unable to send their children to school because they cannot: there is no teacher and no school where their children can be enrolled free of cost. This enhances the wide gulf between classes, disbarring any upward generational mobility for millions of children and leading to intergenerational decline in mental abilities.
Over the past two decades, we have seen growing stagnation in social development.
Quality in the eyes of parents is determined by the presence and qualification of teachers and not physical buildings. They will send their children to school if the teachers are present. Above all, sending all children to school, if it is made a national priority, can be achieved rapidly. For primary schooling, the focus should be on female teachers as they can teach both boys and girls, while having double shifts can eliminate the need to build new schools. This would also tap the potential of thousands of girls and women across the country for productive work.
The second step is to truly empower Pakistan’s women and girls. Inclusive growth has no room for gender bias. Low educational performance and stagnant participation in the labour force do not reflect the aspirations of the 120m women and girls in the country. Women and girls want the same opportunities as men, and when these are available to them, they perform better against all odds.
Foremost, we must step up efforts to encourage women to enter the labour force. Female labour force participation rates have stagnated at less than 24pc for more than a decade. No country can claim inclusive growth or equitable progress without the active contribution of women to household income and savings. Unleashing their productivity will trigger positive social and economic transformation. Existing laws against violence in the workplace and female mobility promotion in Sindh and Punjab are good steps. However, more efforts such as a mandatory quota for women in private and public sector jobs are required. The media can certainly contribute by breaking underlying patriarchal mental models that restrict women’s sphere to the home.
The third and possibly the easiest step to implement is to reduce the current high levels of fertility and associated high maternal morbidity and mortality. Repeated and closely spaced pregnancies half of which are mistimed or unplanned are not the fault of women — 3.5m of these pregnancies end in induced abortions and 1.4m unwanted births annually. This can be changed. Fertility levels can be brought down if pregnancy rates are reduced by half, with pregnancies being truly planned.
Changing stagnating fertility patterns to ensure healthier spacing of pregnancies and fewer unplanned pregnancies will directly help lower infant mortality and malnutrition which continue to be central to the World Bank Country Partnership framework. Arguably, steps are required to improve food security and child stunting, but malnutrition cannot be addressed without reducing fertility in the country.
Left to women, Pakistan could have a lower fertility rate. Women’s stated wanted fertility is one child less than the current 3.6 births per woman. This would bring Pakistan’s fertility closer to the level of our own national goals for FP2030 agreed upon in the Council of Common Interests’ 2018 goals. Extended birth spacing services and campaigns like the ones followed in comparable Muslim countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh will bring rapid change.
Above all, economists and planners who believe inclusive growth is equivalent to greater GDP growth need to acknowledge that any gains will be eroded by rapid population growth and low social development contributing to low productivity.
As pointed out in Pakistan@2050: Demographic Change, Future Projections and Development Opportunities, a reduction in the population growth rate is largely possible with the reforms stated above. It will bring a dramatic rise of 37pc in the per capita income and 5pc GDP growth by 2050.
Pakistan will only lose more time if it puts aside the social development agenda. We cannot wait for economic growth rates to rise to invest in people. Instead, social development investment should be allowed to propel inclusive growth.
The writer is Country Director, Population Council.
Published in Dawn, May 9th, 2025
