THERE is considerable euphoria in Pakistan over what is viewed as a marked improvement in its relations with the US administration under President Donald Trump and the trough that Washington-New Delhi ties seem to have hit.
But is this euphoria well-founded and will it last? Some observers are already calling the shift in US-Pakistan relations a realignment and change in direction. If this ‘realignment’ means a shift away from Beijing for Islamabad, then I suspect these analysts may not have it right. This is simply because Beijing represents the sort of reliable partner and friend that Islamabad has been increasingly dependent on for many of its economic needs and infrastructure development. Pakistan also remains an integral part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
More significantly, with an increasingly belligerent Hindu nationalist government in charge in New Delhi, which is constantly kicking up anti-Pakistan sentiment to cement its communal support base, Islamabad needs military hardware to deter Indian ambitions — in addition to the nuclear deterrent, of course.
Having said that, there are opportunities for Pakistan that are not part of a zero-sum game. Unlike the US, China’s relationship with not just Pakistan but other nations too isn’t based on ‘you are either with us or against us’. It is far more nuanced and pragmatic, because China for now is focused on economic development and trade.
It would be naïve to assume that ties between global powers hinge on relatively minor issues.
Western democracies often point fingers at China’s lack of political freedoms and human rights. But rarely do they laud how China has pulled 800 million people out of poverty in just 40 years. And in the current state of play, particularly in Gaza where almost the entire ‘democratic’ West is complicit in the ethnic cleansing there, while suppressing domestic dissent over this policy, they hardly have a leg to stand on when they pontificate about freedoms. The Gaza Palestinians are being denied the most basic freedom: the right to life.
For now, two things have gone in Pakistan’s favour. Firstly, Islamabad attached the right kind of importance to Trump’s narcissism. It nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, and gave his ‘tough leader’ image a boost by quickly apprehending and extraditing one of the accused in the Kabul Airport ‘Abbey Gate’ bombing. The attack, which occurred in August 2021 during the US withdrawal, left 13 US service personnel and nearly 200 Afghans dead.
Then, when India attacked Pakistani targets in May last year after a terror attack in Indian-held Kashmir, and the US asked both sides for de-escalation, US sources say, Islamabad was quick to respond positively and gave the narcissistic leader a ‘win’. Trump does not tire of claiming the mantle of peacemaker for himself. This massaged his ego no end.
On the other hand, those in the know say that India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi made two moves that upset Trump. The first was reportedly cancelling a meeting with Trump during his US visit last year when the then presidential candidate was on the campaign trail.
The Indians firmly deny that any meeting was scheduled but during a campaign address on Sept 17 Trump said he’d be meeting Modi. Diplomatic sources said that the Modi meetings were pencilled in with both presidential candidates — Trump and Kamala Harris. The latter had to cancel her meeting due to a last-minute development and, therefore, Modi was advised by his team to also cancel the Trump meeting so he did not appear to be meeting/ endorsing one candidate. If true, this must have bruised Trump’s enormous ego.
Another irritant is said to have surfaced during India’s aggression against Pakistan in May this year. American leaders were working the phones to put a lid on the conflict before it spiralled out of control and both South Asian nations told the White House that they’d de-escalate. But India went ahead and launched missile attacks in retaliation for losing an embarrassing number of warplanes in combat, which led to the grounding of prime IAF assets for two days. Pakistan also retaliated and in the small hours of May 10, a top Pakistan official is said to have informed the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that India’s firing of dual-use missiles was a dangerous escalation and Pakistan was exercising restraint only at America’s request.
This reportedly also caused ties to sour as Trump may have felt India chose to slight America by saying one thing and doing the opposite. Although India responded to the renewed US effort and Trump was able to announce a ceasefire some heartburn had been triggered.
The chain of events may have contributed to the deterioration of ties between the US and India but it would be naïve to assume that relations between global powers hinge only on such relatively small issues, even if some of the leaders have bloated egos.
The major irritant in US-India ties is the latter country’s membership of BRICS where Russia and China have joined hands with Brazil, India, South Africa and a host of smaller countries to create a trading bloc. The grouping is pursuing the idea of a new currency for trade without the US dollar. Were this to happen, the dollar would lose its pre-eminence and the world would find a way around US sanctions through a new payment system. The US finds this intolerable, even if many see it as inevitable.
America has been propping up India as a counter to China, and New Delhi is now also part of the Quad comprising US, Australia and Japan. That is why India’s BRICS membership is seen as incompatible with the West’s strategic architecture in Asia. India may have followed a foreign policy keeping its own interest foremost. It is now being pressured to choose sides.
So, some social media mocking of India by Trump, including doomsday predictions about its economy and the new tariffs, has more to do with whipping India into line. If it works, Pakistan’s euphoria may be short-lived. If not, we’d have ringside seats to interesting game.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
Published in Dawn, August 3rd, 2025
